Written by: Robin Hattersley – Feb 24, 2025
YORK, Pa. – A mass shooting unfolded at UPMC Memorial Hospital on Saturday morning, leaving six people injured and two dead, including a police officer who responded to the scene and the gunman himself.
Written by: Robin Hattersley – Feb 20, 2025
A new study published in the JAMA Network warns of a looming hospital bed shortage in the United States — one that could lead to significant increases in excess deaths if current trends persist. According to researchers, the steady rise in hospital bed occupancy rates points to a troubling future for the nation’s healthcare system.
The study highlights how hospital occupancy in the U.S. has reached a new post-pandemic steady state that is 11 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels. From 2009 to 2019, the average national hospital bed occupancy was 63.9%. However, between May 2023 and April 2024, that number rose to 75.3%. This high occupancy level leaves little room for surges from daily bed turnover, seasonal spikes in demand, or unexpected healthcare emergencies.
When national intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy reaches 75%, it triggers concerning ripple effects. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), such levels have been linked to 12,000 excess deaths within two weeks. Researchers say that at 85% hospital occupancy — a threshold widely considered to indicate a “bed shortage” in developed nations —the consequences could be far more devastating.
“If the U.S. were to sustain a national hospital occupancy of 85% or greater, it is likely that we would see tens to hundreds of thousands of excess American deaths each year,” said Dr. Richard Leuchter, assistant professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and lead investigator of the study.
U.S. Could Reach 85% Hospital Bed Occupancy Rate in 7 Years
The study predicts that the U.S. could reach the critical 85% hospital occupancy threshold as early as 2032. However, the risks will not be evenly distributed. Certain states with higher demand and fewer staffed hospital beds are expected to experience shortages much sooner than others.
Dr. Leuchter and his team stress that the problem lies not in an increase in hospitalizations but in a sharp 16% decrease in the number of staffed hospital beds across the country. This decline appears to be largely driven by financial incentives — such as cost-cutting measures by private equity firms purchasing hospitals — rather than changes in medical demand.
“The persistently high occupancy rate is not providing hospitals with enough of a buffer to handle natural fluctuations or unforeseen surges,” according to a press release from UCLA Health Sciences.
The Warning Signs Are Clear
Experts agree that a hospital system operating at 75% capacity is already dangerously close to the breaking point. And, with private equity ownership reducing the capacity of hospitals and no significant investment in expanding the number of staffed beds, the U.S. healthcare system risks finding itself ill-equipped to meet citizens’ medical needs.
The study’s authors call for urgent changes, including “preventing more hospital bankruptcies and closures, partly by revamping hospital reimbursement schemes and regulating private equity involvement in healthcare; addressing factors driving staffing shortages such as provider burnout, and changing policy to expand the pipelines of healthcare professionals.”
This article appeared on Campus Safety News and is shared with consent: https://www.campussafetymagazine.com/news/u-s-will-soon-have-a-hospital-bed-shortage-study-finds/167605/
